FIFA Encyclopedia

FIFA 15 - Capitalizing on Hype Bubbles in Ultimate Team


FIFA 15FIFA 15 - Capitalizing on Hype Bubbles in Ultimate Team

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A hype bubble is a short-term dramatic rise in prices, followed by a price crash that reverts the prices back to what they were before the sharp price increase. When a player scores, does well, or even plays in a big game (such as the Champions League) his price will spike temporarily If Nicika Jelavic, the non-rare gold Everton striker with average stats, scores a brace against Liverpool in a Premier League match, his card may not rise much. Even though a player puts in a great performance in a big game, that player usually* still needs to be someone people want to play with. With all of the great striking options, most FUT players aren’t going to race out to buy Jelavic at an inflated price when there are dozens of better strikers in the Premier League (unless, of course, you live on the blue side of Liverpool).

*As I’ll discuss in a bit, there are certain situations where the match is so big (cup finals, for example) that it doesn’t matter who the player is. If a player comes up big in a few select situations, his price will skyrocket, regardless of how good that player actually is in FUT. It all comes back to the fact that we are capitalizing on “hype” here – if more people see this and get excited, then the more hype will increase

In short, you'll want to look for big players doing big things in big games (cup finals, big derbies, any Champions League match beyond the group stage).
A few examples of how easy it is to make big profits during hype bubbles –

1. On 4 May 2013, Aston Villa winger Gabriel Agbonlahor scored two goals against Norwich City. Villa-Norwich isn’t a big match by any stretch of the imagination, but Agbonlahor is probably the best and most highly desired silver player in the entire game. As such, the demand for him is incredible and his price is usually north of 100K.

I just happened to be flipping through the channels that day and saw that Agbonlahor scored. As soon as he put the first goal in, I knew his FUT price would start to rise and I began analysing the market. Prior to the match, his average price was around 120K. As soon as he scored the first goal, his price spiked to 140K almost instantly (a 15K increase). After he scored the second goal, his price spiked again to 155K. Since his price rose by 30K in a span of minutes, his bubble quickly burst after a rush of panic selling. However, given that more and more people became aware of Agbonlahor’s performance as the day went on, his price went back up to 155K on TOTW speculation, where it remained for the next few days.
Since I was uniquely familiar with the ebbs and flows of the market with regards to hype bubbles, I knew exactly when to buy and when to sell.

I was just a few minutes late to the party, and therefore had to pay somewhat inflated prices on Agbonlahor (seriously, even a few minutes can cost you thousands of coins, so act as fast as possible when you see a big player do a big thing in a match). I ended up acquiring six cards for prices varying between 125K-135K. I ended up selling them all for around 149K and cleared over 50K profit after tax in the span of an hour or so.
As the picture illustrates, once you understand how hype bubbles work, it becomes incredibly easy to make big profits quickly.

2. On 22 April, Manchester United had a chance to clinch the Premier League title against played Aston Villa. Since it was Monday night football and most BPL fans would be watching the match to see if United would clinch the title, I started researching the Robin van Persie market before the game and decided to buy a few for around 19K on average.

Van Persie went on to score a hat trick in that match and his price spiked with each goal. I bought as many as I could after he scored the first goal, and at that point, his price had risen to 22K. By the end of the game, I had flipped over 25 cards, with an average selling price of 30K. My average buying price was 21K, meaning that I received a tidy 7.5K profit per card after tax and ended up with over 200K profit for what amounted to watching a football match and simply recognizing the match’s impact on the FUT market.

The RVP bubble was a perfect storm of sorts. We had one of the most popular players in the world (and one of the most popular FUT players in the game) scoring a hat trick in the first 35 minutes of a match in which one of the most popular clubs in the world clinched the BPL title. Situations like this don't happen all the time, of course, but if you can identify when a situation like that is happening, you can make boatloads of coins very easily.

3. During the 2013 FA Cup, a match watched by nearly all British football fans, as well as Premier League fans from around the world, prices for Wigan players skyrocketed during their shocking upset victory over heavy favourites, Manchester United.
In particular, the Wigan goalkeeper, Joel Robles, and the eventual man of the match, Callum McManaman, saw their cards go from a modest 200-300 coins to nearly 10K over the course of the match.
The big winner, however, was Ben Watson, who scored the winning goal in injury time, just seconds before the final whistle blew.
If you take a look at Watson’s card stats, you’ll notice that there’s nothing particularly special about him. There are literally hundreds of better options in the game if you’re looking for a silver midfielder.
However, given that Watson scored what was arguably the biggest goal in English football during the 2012-2013 season, and given that the goal was scored in a historic FA Cup Final, and given that so many people were watching the match, sheer hype drove his price up over 5000%!

Keep in mind, however, that this is called a hype bubble for a reason. Bubbles have a tendency to burst, and just a few hours after Watson was selling for nearly 25K, the market had completely crashed, and people were having trouble offloading him for 2K.

Do not get sucked into the hype! I can’t stress this enough!

If you don’t get in on a hype bubble in the earliest stages, it’s probably not worth the risk. Using the Watson example, in theory you could have bought in at 10K and doubled your coins by selling at 20K, but unless you’re extremely confident in your timing and your knowledge of when the market will peak, be very careful about buying cards that are already significantly inflated due to hype.

I have personally seen people lose 20K or more on cards because they mistimed their investments and/or overestimated how much the prices would rise before the inevitable crash.

4. The Champions League is the most watched sporting event on the planet. Most FUT gamers are big football fans, and therefore most gamers will be watching the Champions League matches. During the group stages, most fans watch their own clubs, the big matches (ones where Barcelona, Real Madrid, Chelsea, Manchester United, Bayern Munich, Juventus, and PSG are playing), and maybe the other matches in their favourite club’s group. Once the Champions League progresses to the knockout stages (the knockout stages begin in February), most FUT gamers will be watching most, if not all the matches.

During the Champions League knockout stages, the prices of the players will rise significantly (up to 30%) during the match and for an hour or two after the match.

For example, during the quarterfinals between Juventus and Bayern Munich on 2 April, popular Munich and Juventus players rose in price significantly. Munich won the match 2-0, with goals from David Alaba and Thomas Muller. Both of those players saw a significant price increase during, and directly after the match. However, despite being shut out, Juventus players also rose in price. I sold my IF Chiellini for 329K during the second half of the match. Since he was one of my favourite players during FUT13, I bought him back next morning for 272K.

Because I knew how the real world Champions League matches were going to affect the FUT market, I was able to make over 40K profit after tax just by selling one card at the right time.

In addition to selling Chiellini, I also sold and rebought my IF Marchisio for over 10K profit after tax and I had bought around 20 Arturo Vidal’s that I made about 1K each on (as you can probably tell, I thought Juventus was going to win the match). So, even though I chose to trade with players from the losing team that day, I still ended up with around 70K profit.

However, this is not to say that all twenty-two players that started the match significantly rose in price, or even that they rose in price at all. In order to profit off the Champions League hype bubble, you need to choose the right players to work with.
When choosing which players to target in preparation for capitalising on the Champions League price spikes, you’ll want to consider the following factors – During the Champions League final, most of the players involve will rise significantly just by virtue of being on the field. Prior to the Champions League final, you should identify a few players that you think will have an impact on the game and/or have a chance at scoring a goal. Granted, this takes a bit of football knowledge and luck, but if your targeted player has a good game or scores the winning goal, you could be sitting on a goldmine.

During the 2013 Champions League final, Mario Mandžukić’s NIF rose from around 3K to 20K+ after he scored the first goal. In addition, after İlkay Gündoğan scored to tie the game, his NIF rose from around 500 coins to 13K.
Unfortunately, I did not anticipate that either of those players would score, and instead, I bought around 50 NIF Thomas Müller’s. Only Cristiano Ronaldo and Robert Lewandowski scored more goals than Müller during the 2012-2013 Champions League campaign, and I remembered that Müller scored in the 2012 Champions League final in the losing effort against Chelsea, so I figured he would be a decent bet to score.
While Müller didn’t rise to the levels of Gündoğan or Mandžukić, he still tripled in price.

In fact, I ended up selling all of the Müller’s I had stockpiled during the first half of the match, and during the second half, I was still more than doubling my coins in a matter of minutes!

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